快三中奖几概率图

快三中奖几概率图

作者︰ 金衛東 來源︰ 發布時間: 2018-09-21 12:50:56 瀏覽: 4644 字體大小︰

中國三十強飼料企業當前正處于如下四大困惑之中。一孔之見,姑妄言之。


Based on my personal opinion, currently, there are four important dilemmas which the top 30 feed companies in China face.


一、本土化還是國際化之惑

(Localization or Internationalization)


以泰國正大集團為代表的外資企業在中國開疆拓土取得巨大成功;以希望集團為代表的本土企業在越南等國家攻城拔寨取得了卓越成就。事實告訴我們,商業無國界。許多偉大企業的發展歷程證明,國門之內無名企。


An important trend in recent years is the increased internationalization of global markets. Foreign enterprises, such as CP Group from Thailand, have achieved great success by exploiting the Chinese market. Chinese feed enterprises, such as New Hope Group, have expanded overseas with the prospect of claiming many achievements in foreign countries like Vietnam. These facts signify the importance of the saying that “business knows no borders.” Throughout the course of development, to be successful, enterprises could pursue neither a closed-door nor isolationist policy.


中國強大的過程現實上也必然伴隨著資本、技術、市場的向外擴張,這刺激著中國飼料行業的領軍企業躍躍欲試于國際化的發展。截然對立的觀點則認為,中國是全世界最有潛力的市場,本土企業國際化發展是舍近求遠、舍本逐末,況且中國飼料企業無論是股東還是管理團隊的素養都達不到國際化的要求,盲目國際化無異于飛蛾撲火、自取滅亡。西諺有雲︰“離家越遠,離失敗越近。”


The successful growth and development of China is accompanied by the broad expansion of capital, technology, and markets; these accomplishments greatly encourage Chinese feed enterprises to pursue internationalization. However, the opposing viewpoint insists on localization, based on the notion that China is the market with the highest growth potential in the world today. Proponents of this viewpoint believe there is no need to achieve internationalization simpy for the sake of internationalization; that is, there is no need to strive after something unattainable, meanwhile forgoing substantial opportunities immediately at hand. Moreover, the scale of Chinese feed enterprises and the will of shareholders and management teams may not yet have reached the level required to successfully expand abroad. As is often the case, operating and developing businesses far away from the core, can lead to failure as encapsulated by the old Western proverb, “the farther away from hometown, the closer to failure.” 


此爭論曠日已久,難有結論。我的看法是中國飼料企業應該首先立足國內市場,取得優勢地位後放眼周邊,尤其是越南、老撾、柬埔寨、緬甸、朝鮮、哈薩克斯坦等鄰國。對于印度、俄羅斯、韓國、日本等鄰國,市場雖大但進入難度亦大,不宜投資。


In weighing the pros and cons of localization versus internationalization, it is difficult to conclude which course is preferable. From my point of view, the primary strategy of Chinese feed enterprises should be to establish dominance in the domestic market, and then move to neighboring, but less-developed countries such as Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Burma, North Korea, and Kazakhstan. Indeed, in spite of larger market sizes, it would be much harder to invest in neighboring but well-developed countries such as India, Russia, South Korea, Japan, and Australia.


二、專一化還是多元化之惑

(Focus or Diversification)


盡管全世界大多數企業都是靠“諾基亞模式”即專業化經營,專注于唯一選定的領域並取得成功;但也有如美國GE(通用電氣公司)者橫空出世,憑借多元化發展取得巨大成功。中國正處于由混沌初開向秩序井然的成熟社會過渡的時期,眼前活生生的例證是︰東方希望集團靠飼料起家卻以電解鋁行業成為中國私營企業的翹楚;新希望企業千軍萬馬做飼料,而其最大的收益卻來自不經意間投資入股的銀行業和房地產業。近年新希望依靠資本力量投資控股或入股多家農牧企業,成為因多元化而成功的鮮明案例。


Even though many of the world’s successful enterprises, such as Nokia, have pursued a highly focused strategy in a specific sector or industry, other large enterprises, such as GE, have attained even greater success by pursuing a highly-diversified strategy. Currently, China is in a transition point, moving from a developing, volatile, and informal market to a more mature market with rules, regulations, and transparency. For instance,  East Hope Group initially was a feed business, but it soon grew into one of China’s major private aluminum enterprises. Additionally, in its early stages, New Hope Group invested in banking and real estate, instead of focusing its resources on the feed business. Recently, New Hope Group has a robust capital base due to its investment holdings and equity participation in several agriculture companies, which have helped the company to diversify and thereby lower the amount of risk to which it is exposed. 


今天的中國社會,政商關系密切,因一業興旺而積累了足夠資金和龐大社會資源,從而更加有利于開展多元化的經營。堅持專一化、抗拒多元化,最終才能走上成功之路,是被全世界證明了的經驗,但在中國卻並不見得靈驗。高度專業化企業構成的群體強大而高效,如︰微軟、IBM、英特爾因高度分工、密切合作而令美國成為IT業霸主;而過度龐雜的巨頭企業,如日韓財團政商勾結雖使其崛起迅速,卻最終阻礙行業進步甚至危害社會的公正。


Today, the relationship between government and companies has largely been liberalized. The accumulation and distribution of wealth, social benefits, and resources and the pursuit of diversification are based on the decisions and strength of individual enterprises. The most successful approach might be found by examining cases regarding the development of specific businesses and industries, but these examples may not be applicable to China. Highly specialized companies such as Microsoft, IBM, and Intel, which began in the U.S., have become global leaders in the IT industry. On the other hand, some conglomerates in Japan and South Korea may have negatively impacted the overall development of the countries because many deals were made with the respective governments, often behind closed doors. 


多元化還是專一化關鍵取決于我們的目標是無限擴大自身的財富數量,還是願意投身于我們喜歡的事業、貢獻于我們所生長的國家。我傾向于“有所為,有所不為”。


The problems created by focus and diversification should be decided by each individual enterprise, based upon rational choices about maximizing wealth creation, maximizing economic impact, or becoming a leader within a particular industry or sector. I prefer to be an expert in a given field.  


三、專業化還是一體化之惑

(Specialization or Integration)


專業化地把飼料做精、做細、做大、做強是我們的傳統,這一傳統首先在肉雞產業上遇到挑戰。全世界認同的趨勢是,今後很難有單一的商業化肉雞飼料生產者, 而必須實行從育種到孵化、飼料供應到防疫滅病、養殖到屠宰再到肉品加工的產業一體化經營。肉雞業的這一趨勢是否也將推行到豬、蛋雞以及反芻動物生產領域呢?美洲的一體化經營趨勢十分明顯,以史密斯菲爾德公司為代表的“養殖托拉斯式”的企業,規模巨大並完全左右了市場價格,使得畜牧業生產更有計劃性,但有壟斷之虞。近年,史密斯菲爾德公司業績出現巨額虧損,說明該模式運行也並非完善。


The traditional manner of the feed industry is to specialize in feed production and to increase complexity, enhance technology, and improve quality. This traditional manner has encountered challenges of the broiler industry, as exemplified by the comments, “mere broiler feed producer.” The trend is toward integrated production, by assembling the different branches of the process: breeding, hatching, feed supply, epidemic prevention and control, feeding, slaughtering, and meat processing. This trend will likely also affect pork, layer and ruminant industries. The trend has been the case in America; for example, Smithfield Foods is representative of Trus Model. Large scale production and operations obviously affect the market price and should lead to economies of scale. However, in recent years, Smithfield Foods presented signficant losses in its annual financial report. This data suggests imperfection with the Trus Model. 


如果中國的未來趨勢走向一體化,我們就必須主動轉變——或自身形成完全產業鏈、或聯合其他相關企業完成一體化經營,盡管產業化經營風險巨大,但我們不得不面對這個現實挑戰。與北美相比,歐洲的專業化色彩很濃。大量的家庭農場適度規模地經營,政府並不鼓勵擴大養殖規模,相反實行配額限制,專業的飼料企業、專業的屠宰加工企業與農場之間簽訂合約、各司其職,政府通過政策直接干預畜牧業生產過程,把周期性的風險分化于不同生產環節和大量的農場,降低了生產風險,縮短了危機時間。


In fact, this trend toward integration can be particulary challenging, especially if the industry as a whole is consolidating. The challanges lies in converting innovation and execution expertise in a highly-specialized domain, into a broader expertise in integrating other companies into a coherent structure, and operating each component successfully and synergistically. In a sense, compared with North American companies, European ones tend to be even more specialized. Many family farms are under the restriction of quota allocations and limited scales of operation, and formal contracts with specialized feed companies and specialized slaughterhouses. To protect the production and soundness of the market, the government has implemented direct control of the process of production. Government does this through the process known as risk-sharing: it controls each branch of production and a large amount of farms to have risk characteristics that people are comfortable with, thereby reducing crises. 


我仍然認為歐洲的模式更適合中國國情,然而這種模式在歐洲能夠發揮功效,第一有賴于一個專業化的畜牧業政府管理部門,既能未雨綢繆地防範又能力挽狂瀾地制止;第二有賴于一個高度誠信的商業文化,各生產環節真正讓契約有效執行。


I still consider the model practiced in the EU to be preferable. The EU model is accomplished by maintaining crucial controls over operation of the specializated livestock chain. In addition, well-functioning commercial markets and the principle of good faith are essential to a healthy economy.


四、私人化還是公眾化之惑

(Private or Public)


公司通過上市在資本市場籌集資金,成為近年來中國企業的流行做法。飼料行業已有多家捷足先登者。在中國不可思議的高市盈率的資本市場環境下,這些企業一夜暴富,顯著地拉開了與同行之間的資本實力差距。股價虛高產生的巨大誘惑使得“上市”成了比追求經營質量的提高更為有效的創富手段,有些企業甚至不惜為此弄虛作假。


A firm may raise funds in financial markets by issuing equity, such as common stock or shares, which represent claims on the net income (income after expenses and taxes) and assets of a business. China has had active capital markets for many years, and therefore there are many publicly-listed feed companies. Companies listed in China have tended to have extraordinarily high P/E ratios, creating sudden wealth and large gaps between listed and unlisted companies. It is possible that some weaker firms may actually be most eager to sell securities to unwary investors, and the resulting adverse selection problem may keep stock prices in bubble territory. Furthermore, because of the market structure and lack of shareholder rights today, once an investor has bought a security, thereby providing money to a firm, the recipient firm may be incentivited engage in riskier activities or to commit outright fraud. 


我們必須明白,企業上市或曰公眾化只是發展企業的一種手段,絕非經營企業的目的;企業上市公眾化也不是企業發展的唯一途徑,對于很多企業而言並不是最好的手段。德國寶馬公司、美國嘉吉公司都是世界頂尖的大企業,他們卻始終保持著私人企業的不壞金身。企業上市後將面臨更嚴格的公眾監督和機構監管, 同時也會顯著提高企業的運營成本。而為了上市虛報業績、編造項目可能會使這些企業最終失去競爭力。在現實中國資本市場的虛高股價之下,保持理性異乎尋常的艱難,但我們必須實事求是。


But Chinese firms and shareholders should be clear about the following concept: Going public is just an instrument of the company to finance future development, but it is not the final purpose of operations. In contrast, both BMW and Cargill are private holding companies and well-known in the world for many generations. There are stringent reporting requirements for public companies. Their bookkeeping must follow certain strict principles, their books are subject to periodic inspection, and they must make certain information available to the public. These necessary duties increase the cost of operations. Unfortunately, in order to go public, many firms in China create false financial statements and fabricate profit and loss accounts; but such firms will only end in bankruptcy, to the detriment of shareholders, customers, employees, and society. With capital markets supporting such overvalued stock prices, it is unlikely that rational decision-making will be achieved or incentivized in the near-term. But, it is necessary to be honor and pragmatist.



上述困惑之外以三聚氰胺為代表的食品安全事件,使飼料行業首當其沖成為眾矢之的,監管力度不斷加大是政府方面矯枉過正的表現,更多行業管理的苛刻新規使得出現問題時政府可以不承擔任何責任,而由企業完全承擔一切後果,這類似于商業活動中的霸王條款,扼殺了企業的活力,降低了企業的競爭力,企業顯然不堪重負。此外隨著人類活動的增多,地球環境發生劇烈變化,生態系統趨于崩潰,動物疫病愈演愈烈,加之人們對衛生與安全的苛刻要求和對疫病的恐慌心理,使飼料及畜牧業缺乏穩定的生存基礎,這個關系國計民生的行業已經成為一個高危行業。


In addition to the challenges mentioned above, a major concern within the industry is the substandard and deteriorating FSQS (food safety and quality service). Many problems in the food industry have been discovered, such as melamine, which have caused the feed industry to be held at fault by the public. Such debacles, have resulted in increased supervision and regulation of the industry and restrictions imposed on many companies. Going forward, regulation and red tape continue to worsen and impose greater burdens on companies. The livestock industry is now under huge pressure, strangled companies and reduced . Moreover, the world is underoing a dramatic increase in human activity, severe damage to the environment, ecological disasters, and the likelihood of animal-derived epidemics. Considering all of the above components, the feed and livestock industries are under negative status and have recently become even higher-risk businesses.


于2009年底